Dry Cargo Prices (as of December 13, 2024)

● Iron Ore:

○ Prices for 62% iron content CFR North China dropped towards $105/ton.

○ The decline followed subdued expectations from China's annual economic planning conference, which reaffirmed policy shifts but lacked details on stimulus measures. Portside iron ore stocks exceeded 150 million tons, reflecting ample supply.

● Steel Rebar Futures:

○ Prices fell below CNY 3,300/ton, down from a recent high of CNY 3,350 (December 12).

○ The decrease was linked to reduced demand sentiment amid uncertainties in China’s construction sector.

● Coal:

○ Newcastle coal futures declined to below $135/ton (FOB, Q6000), a five-month low.

○ This reflects ample supply, reduced demand uncertainty, and less volatile natural gas markets, especially in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

Dry Bulk Shipping Market

● Market Softening

○ Bulkcarrier demand weakened due to high Panama Canal traffic and lower-than-expected seasonal vessel activity.

○ 2025 Outlook: Softer demand growth is anticipated as Chinese imports stabilize after record gains in 2023-2024 (+20% y-o-y). High stockpiles and moderate stimulus impact limit upside.

● Iron Ore Imports

○ November imports stood at 101.86 million metric tons, down 1.9% from October but up 4.3% y-o-y over January-November 2024.

●Coal Imports

○ Thermal Coal: Chinese imports reached 324mt (+15% y-o-y, January-November), projected to hit a record 354mt in 2024. Growth is supported by steady energy demand and weaker domestic hydropower.

○ Coking Coal: Imports surged 32% y-o-y to an expected 61mt in 2024. Russia now supplies 50% of China’s coking coal imports, reflecting a strategic shift away from traditional suppliers like Australia.

● European Trends

○ Thermal coal imports fell 19% in 2024, with further declines expected due to renewable energy growth and plant closures.

● Global Seaborne Coal Trade

○ Trade grew by 2% in 2024 (to 1,076mt) but may soften in 2025 as demand in China and Europe moderates. Emerging Asian markets (e.g., India, Vietnam) provide some support.

● The Baltic Exchange launched a FuelEU tool for emissions research (https://emissions.research.balticexchange.com/ ).

● BIMCO introduced a FuelEU clause for time charterparties.

● DNV identified LNG as the most cost-effective compliance option under the FuelEU framework.

FuelEU-Related Updates

Dry Bulk Shipping

● Bulkcarrier markets have softened in recent months amid a number of factors including rising Panama Canal transits and a weaker-than-typical seasonal uplift in vessel enquiry. The bulkcarrier market outlook for 2025 is for an overall softer year than 2024, with bulker demand growth expected to moderate. In particular, Chinese dry bulk imports are not expected to repeat the robust growth seen across 2023-2024 (+20% to a record 2.3bn tonnes), and while recent government stimulus policies have improved economic sentiment to a degree, they are not expected to drive major structural improvements in dry bulk demand, particularly against the backdrop of high stockpiles.

● Chinese iron ore imports dipped slightly in November to 101.86 million metric tons, down 1.9% from October's 103.84 million. However, imports have held above 100 million tons every month since July and are also up 4.3% in the first 11 months of the year compared to the same period in 2023.

● Chinese seaborne coal imports rose to 43mt in November, up by 32% y-o-y, driven by stable domestic demand and favourable seaborne prices.

● Chinese seaborne thermal coal imports were up by 15% y-o-y to 324mt across Jan-Nov amid steady energy demand, weaker hydropower output, and headwinds in the domestic coal mining sector in 1H 2024. Chinese seaborne thermal coal imports are projected to rise by 13% this year to a record 354mt, though uncertainty remains around the pace of imports across 2025-26, given the sensitivity of Chinese imports to local hydropower availability, the pace of China’s renewables roll-out and coal power phaseout, the speed and magnitude of the recovery in domestic coal production, and stockpiling trends.

● Meanwhile, European thermal coal imports have declined across 2024 amid energy transition pressures, with imports expected to decrease by 19% this year to 59mt. Imports are projected to continue to fall going forwards owing to growing renewable capacity and plant closures, though the pace of decline will remain sensitive to government policies and the impact of weather on overall energy demand and renewable output.

● Global seaborne thermal coal trade is projected to grow by 2% in 2024 to a record 1,076mt as firm demand growth in China and India outweighs declining coal-powered energy generation in other key economies (e.g. Europe, South Korea). 2025 outlook for seaborne thermal coal trade is for overall volumes to ease back as declines in Chinese and European are unlikely to be matched by growing coal demand in emerging Asian economies (e.g. India, Vietnam), though uncertainty remains, particularly around Chinese demand. Further ahead, thermal coal trade is expected to see further declines in 2026 as the global energy transition continues.

● Chinese seaborne coking coal imports are on track to grow by 32% y-o-y to a record 61mt in 2024, accounting for 35% of growth in global seaborne coal trade this year. Russia has become the largest supplier of seaborne coking coal to China, with volumes up by 18% y-o-y across Jan-Oct at 23mt (up from just 6mt in 2020), accounting for ~50% of total Chinese seaborne coking coal imports; most is shipped from Russia’s Far East. Meanwhile, Australia's coking coal exports to China rebound to ~6mt in Jan-Oct (2023: ~2mt). Elsewhere, imports of North American coking coal have also picked up this year (up ~40% y-o-y) amid softening European demand that is driving Atlantic exports to ‘pivot’ towards Asia. However, the outlook is uncertain as steel demand growth looks uninspiring. Moreover, a range of downside risks need monitoring, including potential for a rebound in domestic coal output, further growth in imports from Mongolia, or a material slowdown in inventory building.

Scotland Allocates £150 Million for Offshore Wind Power Industry

It has been announced that Scotland's draft budget for 2025/2026 will allocate £150 million in government investment for offshore wind power. Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison stated that this funding will help attract £1.5 billion in private investment for the development of critical infrastructure and manufacturing facilities for the offshore wind industry. She emphasized the Scottish government's commitment to investing up to £500 million in the offshore wind sector over five years. (Source: renews.biz)

118 Meters! Era New Material's Onshore Wind Turbine Blade Length Sets a New Record

On December 4th, the TMT118AA onshore wind turbine blade, independently developed by Era New Material, was successfully rolled off the production line in Yancheng, Jiangsu. This blade, measuring 118 meters in length and with a swept area of 45,000 square meters—equivalent to the area of six football fields—is the longest and highest power-rated onshore wind turbine blade currently produced by Era New Material. The blade will be matched with a 12.5MW turbine, and when the wind turbine operates at full capacity for one hour, it can power an average new energy vehicle to travel over 90,000 kilometers. Calculated based on an average annual wind speed of 7.5m/s, a single unit can generate approximately 38 million kWh of electricity per year. (Source: Era New Material)

Vietnam's Newly Passed Electricity Bill to Create Conditions for Offshore Wind Power Project Development

Vietnam's new electricity bill aims to foster offshore wind power projects, targeting a 6000MW installed capacity by 2030. Currently, no projects have been approved, and investors face challenges. European Chamber of Commerce Chairman BrunoJaspaert notes that Vietnam needs to resolve obstacles within six months to achieve its goals. The Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes preferential policies and investment incentives, suggesting that electricity buyer EVN and sellers agree on a minimum purchase quantity, waive fees, offer tax incentives, and support self-generation systems. The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) appreciates the draft, advising the government to allow state-owned enterprises to cooperate with international developers. Jaspaert emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprises in the first project and suggests learning from European experiences.

First nations group plans Australian wind farm with Danish developer

A group of first nations peoples in Australia is partnering with a Danish developer European Energy to build a 250MW onshore wind project on their ancestral land in Queensland, Australia. The First Nations Bailai, Gurang, Gooreng Gooreng and Taribelang Bunda People Development Corporation (FNBGGGTB Development Corporation) plan to work with European Energy on the project in the Gladstone region on Queensland’s Pacific coast in north-east Australia. The FNBGGGTB Development Corporation is a developer that promotes first nations peoples’ economic prosperity in the Port Curtis Coral Coast region of Queensland. The region includes traditional territories covering around 19,583km2 of land and 26,636 km2 of marine territory, the corporation said. The FNBGGGTB Development Corporation and European Energy had worked for nine months prior to today’s (4 December) announcement on early project development. It remains subject to outstanding feasibility studies.